January 1, 2021 Picks

College Football:

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: #9 Georgia vs #8 Cincinnati - This game is going to be fun. Georgia is a 7 point favorite against an undefeated Bearcats team. Cincinnati’s best win is a 27-24 win against Tulsa in the American Conference Championship game. Georgia has two losses against top ten teams, and they started to gel at the end of the season. You have Cincinnati’s high flying offense that averaged just under 40 points a game, against a Georgia defense that held its last three opponents to an average of 18 points a game. The question is whether the Bearcats can move the ball successfully against that stingy Georgia defense. They won’t do it well enough to cover. Pick: Georgia 34 Cincinnati 24

VRBO Citrus Bowl: Auburn vs #14 Northwestern - The Citrus Bowl features two teams that had vastly different seasons, from their own perspective. Auburn went 6-4 and fired their coach. Northwestern went 6-2 and made it to the Big 10 Championship Game, losing to Ohio State. Northwestern is a 4 point favorite and it won’t be that close. The Auburn Tigers are transitioning to Bryan Harsin as coach after getting rid of Gus Malzahn last month. Traditionally, teams that are bringing in new coaches don’t fare well in their Bowl Game, and that trend continues today. Northwestern is going to control the game offensively and defensively and will win with relative ease. Pick: Northwestern 31 Auburn 17

Rose Bowl Game presented by Capital One: #4 Notre Dame vs #1 Alabama - Now we get to the big games. The first Championship Semifinal sees the Irish as a 19.5 point underdog to the Crimson Tide, the biggest spread in College Football Playoff history. Alabama has two Heisman finalists in quarterback Mac Jones and wide receiver DeVonta Smith, but their best player might be running back Najee Harris. Harris ran for 1262 yards and had 24 touchdowns for the Crimson Tide, who only had one game all season decided by less than 15 points. That one game was the SEC Championship game against Florida, winning 52-46 in a shootout. Notre Dame boasts talent all over the field, and quarterback Ian Book is the all time winningest quarterback in school history. Notre Dame has not been good in the playoffs in the past, and while they will lose, the spread is far too big. They will hang around the first half before Alabama pulls away and wins by two touchdowns. Pick: Alabama 38 Notre Dame 24

Allstate Sugar Bowl: #3 Ohio State vs #2 Clemson - We have a lot to unpack in this one. We have the game last year between these two teams, where Ohio State jumped out to a 16-0 lead before Trevor Lawrence led a comeback and Justin Fields was intercepted at the end of the game while driving for the game winning touchdown. We have Clemson coach Dabo Swinney ranking the Buckeyes #11 in his end of the year poll, saying that they didn’t play enough games to warrant a top ten ranking. Fields and Lawrence are back in what should be a game with a lot of fireworks. Clemson is a 7.5 favorite in this game and after dismantling Notre Dame in the ACC Championship game why wouldn’t they be? Ohio State is a lot better than Notre Dame and they will have a chip on their shoulder after those comments by the Clemson coach. Not only will Ohio State cover, they will win the game outright and face Alabama in the National Championship game. Pick: Ohio State 31 Clemson 28

NBA

Memphis at Charlotte - Memphis is without Ja Morant and Lamello Ball actually has scored after his abysmal debut. Pick: Hornets -4

Boston at Detroit - The line for this game is the Celtics are a 9.5 point favorite. The Pistons are 0-4 this season and all four losses have been between eight and ten points. They haven’t played a team as good as the Celtics this year so the Celtics cover. Pick: Celtics -9.5

Miami at Dallas - This game has Dallas as a 1.5 point favorite against Miami. Assuming Jimmy Butler plays after missing the last three games, he probably won’t play extended minutes. That will really hurt Miami against Luka and the Mavs. Mavs cover. Pick: Mavericks -1.5

Atlanta at Brooklyn - Trae Young is considered day to day with soreness in his right calf. I feel like this line is too low even with Young playing at 100%, but if he is injured at all this is an easy cover for the Nets. Pick: Nets -6.5

Chicago at Milwaukee - The Bulls have four of their players out this game due to Covid, and the Bucks are coming off that 30 three point barrage against the Heat. That said, the last time the Bucks were favored by this much they lost to the Knicks. The Knicks!! I expect the Bucks to win this game but they don’t cover. Pick: Bulls +14

Washington at Minnesota - This game has the home team as a one point favorite. The Wizards are 0-5 this season and the Timberwolves are without Karl Anthony Towns. While I like Naz Reid, he is no KAT. Wizards win their first game of the season here. Pick: Wizards +1

Los Angeles Lakers at San Antonio - These teams played two nights ago in Los Angeles with the Lakers winning by 14. The line is now the Lakers favored by seven. The fact that is now in San Antonio is not worth seven points. Lakers Cover. Pick: Lakers -7

Phoenix at Denver - Phoenix is on the second day of a back to back while the Nuggets have had two days off. The game is in Denver which means those heavy legs will be heavier than normal. I know that Phoenix is playing well right now but four points is not enough for them to be taking. Nuggets cover with ease. Pick: Nuggets -4

Los Angeles Clippers at Utah - The Clippers have been the most Jekyll and Hyde team in the NBA this season. The beat the Lakers on opening day and then a few days later are losing to the Mavericks by 50 at halftime. Which team will show up here? The last two games have been great for the Clippers, so expect a fall back to earth here. Not only will the Jazz cover the three points, they will win outright. Pick: Jazz -3

Portland at Golden State - Portland is a four point favorite in this game and that line seems too low. The Warriors have won their last two games against a Bulls team by one point and a winless Pistons team. Damian Lillard really hasn’t had a breakout game yet, and that happens here. Pick: Blazers -4